最近の活動

能登半島地震の復興が動き出す。多くの被災者がなお避難所暮らしを強いられる中、政府は生活再建やインフラ復旧の政策をまとめる。過去の災害では巨額の公費が地域再生に直結しなかった例もある。人口減時代の地震大国・日本で復興のあり方を探る。能登半島地震を巡る政府の被災地支援のパッケージが25日、公表される。①生活再建②中小、農林業、観光業など生業再建③インフラなどの災害復旧――の3つが柱となる見通しだ。

This study simulates how the disruption of imports from various regions affects the total production of the importer economy. We particularly incorporate the propagation of the economic effect through domestic supply chains using data on more than one million firms and four million supply chain ties in Japan. Our findings are summarized as follows. First, the negative effect of the disruption of intermediate imports grows exponentially as its duration and strength increase due to downstream propagation. Second, the propagation of the economic effect is substantially affected by the network topology of importers, such as the number of importers (affected nodes) and their degree of upstreamness in supply chains, whereas the effect of their degree centrality is heterogeneous depending on their degree of upstreamness. Finally, the negative effect of import disruption can be mitigated by the reorganization of domestic supply chains, even when conducted only among network neighbors. Our findings provide important policy and managerial implications for the achievement of more robust and resilient global supply chains.

Hosted by The Society for Modeling and Simulation International (SCS), the Annual Modeling and Simulation Conference (ANNSIM) is the SCS Conference to cover state-of-the-art developments in Modeling & Simulation (M&S). We invite original contributions to the theory and practice of modeling and simul…